NFL Draft: First Round Analysis Of Top 10 Picks

1. Indianapolis Colts – QB Andrew Luck, Stanford – No surprise here.  Luck was crowned the top overall pick of the 2012 draft the moment he announced he was coming back to Stanford for one more year.  Many draft experts rate Luck as the best QB to come out since John Elway and I think that is overrating him.  I do not follow the logic that Luck is a can’t miss prospect.  He is going to a team where he is replacing a legend, possibly the best QB in NFL history.  The team, particularity the offensive weapons that Peyton Manning had, have been jettisoned.  The Colts fans are used to winning and Luck will be thrown to the wolves from day one.  He has an uphill battle in front of him and it will be a daunting task to turn that franchise around.

2. Washington Redskins – QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor – No surprise here either.  Mike Shanahan and the Redskins mortgaged their future in order to get the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.  In exchange for the St. Louis Rams’ 2nd overall pick, the Redskins gave up their first round pick in 2013 & 2014.  They also gave up their 2nd round pick this year and swapped their 6th overall pick this year.  Out the gate, I believe that RG3 has the best chance to succeed.  He will have TE Fred Davis, who had a Pro Bowl caliber season in 2011 and was given the franchise tag this offseason.  The Redskins also went out and signed WRs Pierre Garcon from the Colts and Josh Morgan from the 49ers.  He should also have a solid ground game with Roy Helu and the zone blocking scheme the Redskins deploy.

3. Cleveland Browns – RB Trent Richardson, Alabama – The Browns swapped picks with the Vikings moving up from the 4th slot to the 3rd slot in order to draft Richardson.  I think this was a big overreach.  There was a chance that Richardson would have still been there at that 4 spot unless the Bucs were hell bent on getting him.  You don’t draft a RB this high unless his name is Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, or Adrian Peterson.  RBs have an average shelf life of 3 years and let’s be honest RBs are a dime a dozen.  Arian Foster, LeGarrette Blunt, and Fred Jackson were all undrafted RBs.  Richardson doesn’t have a lot of wiggle in his run, he is stiff, which opens him up to injuries.  For this reason I think that Doug Martin out of Boise St. was the better first round value.  Martin can run between the tackles, has the same size and speed as Richardson, he is great in pass pro, and catching the ball out of the backfield.  To put it simply he is an every down back.  The Browns would have been better served to draft Oklahoma St. WR Justin Blackmon with this pick and pick up Martin with their second first round pick.  This would have given them two quality weapons to pair with Colt McCoy.  By the way, Blackmon went 5th to the Jags and Martin went 31st to the Bucs, both would have been available for the Browns at 4 and 22.

4. Minnesota Vikings – OT Matt Kalil, USC – The Vikings made out great in the trade with the Browns.  They moved back one spot and still got the player that they wanted.  Additionally, they picked up the Browns’ 4th, 5th, and 7th round picks.  Kalil is a very talented, athletic tackle and should be the starting LT from day one.  This gives Christian Ponder the blindside protection that he needs.  The Vikings gave up 49 sacks in 2010, tied for 5th in the league.  So Kalil is a much needed addition to their offensive front.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma St. – The Jags traded up from the 7th spot to the 5th spot, swapping picks with the Bucs in order to draft Blackmon.  Blackmon is only the second WR to win the Fred Biletnikoff Award twice (Michael Crabtree).  He certainly is a good receiver but he often times drops passes that he should easily catch.  He also did not face a lot of press coverage while at Oklahoma State so there are questions about his ability to be successful against it in the NFL.  While I think he is a great receiver, I believe that Michael Floyd out of Notre Dame is a better receiver.  Floyd has better hands, has a bigger frame to be physical with, and runs in the 4.4 range to get downfield.  The only knock on Floyd was some off the field character issues.  Blackmon also is going to a team where there is a huge question mark at QB with Blaine Gabbert.

6. Dallas Cowboys – CB Morris Claiborne, LSU – The Cowboys traded up to get the player they wanted.  When they initially announced the trade, I thought it was to get Alabama safety Mark Barron.  So the fact that they did it to pick Claiborne was a surprise to me.  They went out and signed Chiefs’ CB Brandon Carr to replace former starter Terrance Newman and their other CB Mike Jenkins is in the final year of his contract.  Jenkins has been somewhat of a disappointment after being drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft.  The arrival of Claiborne might signal the end of Jenkins’ tenure with the Cowboys and at least for this year a demotion to nickel corner.  Claiborne is a compete CB, he has great ball skills and is not afraid of contact in run support.  Rob Ryan’s defense is reliant on having CBs that can hold up in man coverage, Claiborne paired with Carr now give Dallas the ability to use their exotic blitz schemes.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Mark Barron, Alabama – It was expected Morris Claiborne would end up as a Buc and Mark Barron would be a Cowboy, so it is kind of funny that the opposite happened.  The Bucs got a quality safety in Barron.  He played in a complicated scheme in Bama and was an enforcer against the run.  He doesn’t quite have the range of an Ed Reed but not many do.  Will need to match up against some high powered passing attacks playing in the NFC South with Atlanta, New Orleans and Carolina.  He has the tools to get the job done and should have a very successful pro career.

8. Miami Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M – Miami finally got their first round QB, the only problem is that it was a HUGE reach.  While Tannehill has a huge upside, he is not worthy of a top 10 pick.  He is closer to a 3rd or 4th round pick at this point in his career.  He is a very athletic guy, starting at WR for two years prior to moving to QB.  However, he only had 19 starts at the QB position and is still very raw.  Hopefully the Dolphins have a plan to bring him along slowly.  Throwing him in early will be a disservice to him and the franchise.  He needs at least 2 years to develop and to really learn how to play the position.  Mike Sherman, his offensive coordinator at Texas A&M, is now the new offensive coordinator for the Dolphins.  This should bring him familiarity with what the play caller is looking for and an understanding of the offense right out the gate.

9. Carolina Panthers – LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College – Kuechly was a tackling machine at Boston College racking up 532 tackles in 3 years and 191 tackles in 2011 (102 solo).  In 2011 he also won the Lombardi Award, the Lott IMPACT Trophy, and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy before declaring for the NFL Draft.  He has great instincts and pass coverage ability.  He should be a great addition to the Panthers defense when paired with Jon Beason who is returning from an Achilles injury.  I don’t know if he is on the level of a Ray Lewis when he came out, but he is rated as one of the best LBs to come out in a while.  The Panthers need the defensive help as they lost many games in 2011 as the result of poor defensive play.  They also need some help in the secondary and there was some talk that South Carolina CB, Stephon Gilmore, would go here.

10. Buffalo Bills – CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina – The Bills should be much improved in 2012 on the defensive side of the ball.  They signed Mario Williams away from the Texans and Mark Anderson away from the Patriots to improve their front 7.  If Shawn Merriman can stay healthy and regain form, their defense gets even scarier.  To help in the secondary they drafted South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore, a very solid player.  He didn’t play a lot of man press in college, instead played a lot of off man and zone.  Will need to be solid in man at the NFL level, especially in a division where he will see the Patriots twice per year.  He is a very smart player, has 4.4 speed and great overall athleticism.  Has great height at 6′ 1″ to match up against taller receivers in the league and is great in run support, not afraid to mix it up.  This is a solid pick for the Bills but I believe that Janoris Jenkins, who excels in man coverage, might have been a better corner to go after.  Jenkins has a number of red flags from his time at Florida that caused his stock to drop.  So taking that into account you can understand taking Gilmore here.

Are The Dodgers Really Magical?

Magic Johnson moves from the NBA to MLB

Pending approval by the court and MLB, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been sold for a record $2.15 Billion to a group that includes former Los Angeles Lakers & NBA great Earvin “Magic” Johnson.  Many in the media are spinning the purchase as a Magic Johnson led effort, but is this really the case?  While it is not clear what percentage of the team Magic will own, it is clear that he is one of a few people who own a small stake in the team.  Apart from Magic, there are at least two other people (Stan Kasten & Peter Guber) that have a minority ownership stake.  The person that put up the big bucks was CEO of Guggenheim Partners, Mark Walter, who met with current owner Frank McCourt in New York on Tuesday to hammer out the deal.  It has been stated that Walter will not be involved in the day-to-day operations of the team.  It is almost certain that Kasten, a former baseball executive, will be heavily involved in the day-to-day.

So with this in mind, was the ownership group really”led” by Magic or is he just along for the ride?  On the operational side, how much say will he really have as a minority stake holder?  There is also no doubt that Magic will be the face of the Dodgers franchise.  He is the most recognizable and charismatic sports icon that the Los Angeles area has ever seen.  Magic’s involvement almost seems like a spokesperson deal, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  To get his magical smile and face  as the front man for the franchise, he deserves an ownership stake.  All I can say about that is, get your money Magic!

Now there is still a question whether the ownership group paid too much.  Some sports economist are saying that the deal exceeds the value of the franchise by as much as $1 billion.  To give an idea of why they are saying this, just about three years ago the Chicago Cubs sold for $845 million and the Miami Dolphins sold for $1.1 billion.  The price paid to acquire the Dolphins was the record price for the purchase of a North American sports franchise until this Dodgers deal.  Keep in mind that NFL teams have a higher value than other sports franchises in North America, so the Dolphins deal made sense.  The world record for the purchase of a sports franchise was $1.45 billion paid for Manchester United 7 years ago.

Additionally, just about a year ago, Forbes valued the Dodgers at about $800 million.  This made them the 3rd most valuable MLB franchise with the New York Yankees ($1.7 billion) and the Boston Red Sox ($912 million) taking the top two spots.  So in about one year, the value of the Dodgers has almost tripled?  Does this make the Yankees now worth about $5 billion?  There also appears to be a need for Dodgers Stadium to undergo renovations that will cost an estimated $300 million.  Even if the Dodgers sign a TV deal similar to the ones signed by the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers for an estimated $3 billion, that revenue stream will be eaten up to cover the costs of the purchase and in stadium improvements.  It seems like the only one that made a great transaction here is McCourt.

Let’s just say that I hope that Magic isn’t too heavily invested in the team because these numbers don’t make sense.  He has been one former athlete that has been smart with his money.  I hope he can divest himself and be instrumental in bring a NFL franchise to Los Angeles.  The NFL is where the money is.

The Tebow Circus Moves to New York

The three-ring circus that is Tebow-mania is packing up and headed to New York.  I find this to be a very odd move, especially in light of the fractured locker room that the New York Jets had this past season.  Much of that dysfunction centered around Santonio Holmes’ dissatisfaction with the play of starting QB Mark Sanchez.  As awful as Sanchez was at times, he was never as bad as Tim Tebow.  Sanchez only completed 56% of his passes in 2011 but that was still better than the 46% that Tebow put up for the Denver Broncos.  Does the Jets front office really think that Holmes would be happy with Tebow skipping passes in the turf?

I find it even stranger that the Jets would invest so much money in Sanchez to ensure that he is their starter for at least the next 2-3 seasons and then invite the circus that Tebow brings with him.  To illustrate what kind of circus Tebow brings with him, the Jets are having a press conference to introduce a back up QB!!  Not just any press conference, it is being held in the Jets indoor practice facility to accommodate room for the media.  We are talking about a back up QB with a 46% completion percentage in a passing league!!

Let’s be clear, everyone is quick to give Tebow credit for the Broncos wins, but a closer look paints a different story.  In the Broncos run to the playoffs, none of their wins came against a playoff team.  The 7 wins came against teams that were a combined 48-64.  That is a .428 winning percentage!!  Kansas City lost their starting QB to injury during this game (Matt Cassel) and their starting RB (Jamaal Charles) was lost for the year two games into the season.  The Chicago Bears were playing without starting QB (Jay Cutler) and RB (Matt Forte).  The Miami Dolphins were 0-7 before they won their first game of the season.  The Oakland Raiders were playing with a QB that came off the couch (Carson Palmer) due to the injury of their starting QB (Jason Campbell) and also didn’t have Darren McFadden.  The Minnesota Vikings were just plain horrible at 3-13 for the year.  Phillip Rivers had an awful year for the San Diego Chargers and their defense was nowhere near where it was in 2010, dropping from 1st to 16th.

The Broncos and Tim Tebow had a lot of things go their way during this stretch run as mentioned above.  Then you can throw in bone head plays like those provided by Marion Barber at the end of the game that handed the win to the Broncos.  To top it all off the Tebow led Broncos backed into the playoff by losing their final 3 games of the season.  The Broncos did not win because of Tebow, they won in spite of him.  They did this by playing solid defense against depleted or inept offenses and putting an emphasis on running the ball to limit Tebow’s throwing opportunities.  These two things kept the games close so that Tebow can get credit for the win once the kicker made the field goal.

By bringing Tebow in, the Jets aren’t bringing in a QB that will push Sanchez to improve his play.  They are bringing in a distraction.  If Sanchez plays well but the team is losing, the media and the fans will be calling for Tebow to play.  If Sanchez plays poorly, there will be calls for Tebow to play.  There really isn’t a win here for Sanchez other than his contract or unless his play is dramatically improved.  Everyone knows that the back up QB is the most popular guy in town (until he is forced to play) and there are no back up QBs more popular than Tebow.  Which I don’t understand because his personal play doesn’t match his hype.

This will be an interesting thing to watch.  I hope that HBO sends the Hard Knocks crew to visit the Jets camp again.  The Jets always make for great theater and now they have more drama than ever.